Comparison of ТЕС Prediction Methods in Low Latitudes with GIM Maps

Abstract

For the high-latitude part of the low-latitude region, the errors in determining the TEC from the data of Rostov and Ankara stations in 2015 were estimated. The estimates obtained for the IRI-Plas model turned out to be better than for the NeQuick model, with an average absolute error in the range of 3-3.6 TECU, a relative RMS error in the range of 21-27% which is acceptable for use in positioning systems. For a short-term forecast, the best results were obtained by the Standard Persistence Model with an average absolute error in the range of 1.95-2.5 TECU, a relative RMS error in the range of 17-21%. For the proposed method, these estimates were 2.04–2.5 TECU and 12–14%.